The CLIFF Index
What are benefits cliffs?
Public benefits weren’t designed to phase out together. These programs were built one at a time over decades, each with its own income cutoff, its own rules, and no coordination between them. In every community in America, that means families moving up hit multiple thresholds at once — SNAP reducing, childcare copays rising, a Medicaid cutoff approaching. Each phase-out might be manageable on its own. Together, they’re not.
More than 11.2M families nationwide earn in this range — between 100% and 200% of the federal poverty level, roughly $28,000 to $55,000 for a family of three. We call it the Cliff Zone. Not every family here will lose money from a raise. But many can’t afford to find out — a 2025 study found that 1 in 4 workers receiving public benefits report taking action to maintain their eligibility — declining raises, cutting hours, or turning down better-paying jobs.
What the CLIFF Index measures
Tools like the Atlanta Fed’s CLIFF Calculator show what happens to a specific family’s benefits as income rises. The CLIFF Index asks a different question: across all 50 states and DC, which communities have the most severe cliffs, which programs drive the biggest losses, and how do state policies shape the outcome?
How it’s built
We score every county and state using federal data from the Census, the Atlanta Fed, HUD, and IRS. Because not every eligible family enrolls in every program, the scores are adjusted for actual participation rates — so they reflect real conditions, not worst-case scenarios. Full methodology →
Counties with more severe cliffs show lower economic mobility, more food insecurity, and worse health outcomes — tested against the Opportunity Atlas and the County Health Rankings. The correlation with mobility holds even after accounting for income, education, and poverty — and within each state, not just in national averages. Validation details →
We’re looking for collaborators
If you work with families navigating benefit cliffs — as a researcher, program operator, policy analyst, or community leader — we’d like to hear from you at luke@thepovertysolution.com. The best version of this tool gets built with the people who use the data every day.
On the roadmap: State legislative district scoring, exportable county reports, and policy simulation tools — model how proposed reforms like phase-out smoothing or threshold changes would shift cliff severity.
Explore by State
Click any state to see county-level data. Use the tabs to switch metrics.
Composite severity score (0–100) combining cliff exposure, severity, vulnerability, and policy environment.
| # | StateState | CLIFF ScoreScore | Est. Annual ImpactImpact | People in Cliff ZonePeople | Top Cliff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NevadaNV | 100severe | $74M | 559K | 17.8% | Childcare (CCDF) |
| 2 | GeorgiaGA | 98severe | $239M | 1.8M | 17.2% | Childcare (CCDF) |
| 3 | ArkansasAR | 96severe | $76M | 635K | 21.4% | Medicaid |
| 4 | TexasTX | 94severe | $666M | 5.2M | 17.7% | Childcare (CCDF) |
| 5 | FloridaFL | 92severe | $538M | 3.9M | 17.6% | Childcare (CCDF) |
| 6 | IndianaIN | 90severe | $147M | 1.1M | 17.0% | Childcare (CCDF) |
| 7 | MississippiMS | 88severe | $75M | 603K | 21.2% | Medicaid |
| 8 | OklahomaOK | 86severe | $93M | 787K | 20.1% | Medicaid |
| 9 | OhioOH | 84severe | $235M | 1.8M | 16.0% | Medicaid |
| 10 | ArizonaAZ | 82severe | $175M | 1.2M | 16.5% | Childcare (CCDF) |
What cliffs cost — and what the numbers miss
Of the 11.2 million families in the Cliff Zone, 8.4 million have at least one working adult. The same 2025 survey that found 1 in 4 taking action to maintain eligibility shows roughly 1 in 6 specifically limiting their earnings — declining raises, refusing hours, or passing up better-paying jobs. Each family foregoes an estimated $2,100 per year on average. Those lost wages mean less economic activity in local communities — and benefit spending continues because families remain below eligibility thresholds. The total: an estimated $6.6B per year across all 50 states and DC.
That figure captures only what we can measure.
Estimated annual cost
$6.6B
Modeled from survey-reported behavioral rates (CSD/Washington University 2025) and Census ACS population data. Click any row below for methodology.
8.4M families × 16% avoidance × ~$2,100/yr foregone × ~1.5x multiplier + benefit continuation = $6.6B
What this excludes: Multi-year career stagnation, health impacts of benefit loss, educational outcomes for children in families navigating benefit phase-outs, and families for whom entering the workforce would mean losing more in benefits than they gain in wages. This estimate captures only the measurable portion — the actual cost to communities is likely higher. Full methodology →