Lincoln CountyLow
6,567 people earn in the cliff zone — between 100% and 200% of the federal poverty level — where benefit phase-outs from multiple programs overlap. Childcare (CCDF) creates the largest single benefit loss at the cliff point. Each section below shows the component score, the underlying metrics, and how Lincoln County compares to 95 counties in Tennessee.
Scores are rankings — a score of 78 means cliff conditions here are more severe than in 78% of U.S. counties. Higher is worse. Each section measures one dimension; state policy can shift the overall score up or down based on how well the state mitigates cliffs. Even communities with low scores have families facing steep cliffs — the score measures how a place compares to others, not the severity of what individual families experience. Full methodology →
Population Exposure
How many people in Lincoln County earn in the income range where benefit phase-outs concentrate — and the composition of that population.
Cliff Severity
How steeply benefits phase out in Lincoln County. The chart below shows the marginal effective tax rate (METR) at each wage level — when the line exceeds 100%, a raise leaves the family worse off. Rates are measured over a $2.50/hr raise ($5,200/yr), matching the window used in the Upward Mobility Act’s proposed 50% METR cap. A smaller raise at the exact threshold would show a higher rate. This chart uses Tennessee’s program rules, Lincoln County’s fair market rents, and local childcare costs. Hover to see which programs drive each peak. Rates assume full program enrollment — Section 8 and CCDF contributions to the peak rate are structural (only 8–25% of families hold a housing voucher; CCDF reaches a fraction of eligible families). Medicaid is valued at government cost per enrollee (MACPAC), not what a family would pay to replace coverage.
Economic Vulnerability
Whether the local economy in Lincoln County positions families where benefit phase-outs are most likely to trigger — and whether advancement past them is realistic. In Tennessee, a single parent with two children needs to earn $13.25/hr to clear benefit phase-outs entirely.
Policy Environment
State policies that moderate or amplify benefit cliff severity. Each sub-score measures how much state policy amplifies cliffs on a 0–100 scale — 0 means the policy fully mitigates cliffs in that area, 100 means it maximally amplifies them. The four sub-scores combine into a multiplier that shifts the overall CLIFF Score by up to 25% in either direction. This score is the same for all counties in Tennessee.
Economic Impact
Estimated annual cost of benefit cliffs in Lincoln County, based on workforce behavior research and Census population data.
Estimated annual cost
$318,852
Modeled from survey-reported behavioral rates (CSD/Washington University 2025) and Census ACS population data. Click any row for methodology.
481 families × 16% avoidance × ~$2,100/yr × multiplier + benefit continuation = $318,852
What this excludes: Multi-year career stagnation, health impacts of benefit loss, educational outcomes for children, and families for whom entering the workforce would mean losing more than they gain. This estimate captures only the measurable portion. Full methodology →
Program cliff breakdown
| Program | Largest Loss | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Childcare (CCDF) | -$10,299/yr | Hard |
| Medicaid | -$4,810/yr | Gradual |
| SNAP | -$4,020/yr | Hard |
| School Meals | -$1,134/yr | Hard |
| WIC | -$972/yr | Gradual |
| ACA Marketplace | -$453/yr | Gradual |
| Section 8 Housing | -$312/yr | Gradual |
| EITC | -$220/yr | Gradual |
A hard cliff means the entire benefit disappears at a single income threshold. Peak drop based on a single parent with 2 children. Click any row to see thresholds by family size.
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